Image: WUR
What will the future bring if nature is made a guiding principle in urban and landscape planning? Building on project NL2120, scientists and Wageningen students sketched a hopeful future for all of Europe: EU2120. What will the daily life of an average European look like in 100 years?
The story of the European of the future has a prologue: NL2120. Four years ago, Tim van Hattum, programme leader of Climate at Wageningen University & Research, and a group of WUR researchers took the initiative to draft a green future vision for the Netherlands in 100 years. They drew a map with lots of forests, more space for rivers and green cities in the more elevated parts of the Netherlands. NL2120 was picked up by the media, allowing Van Hattum to convey his story to the wider public in a variety of ways. Municipalities, water boards, provinces, schools, nature conservation organisations, businesses and research institutes followed the developments with keen interest. ‘They all say it is inspiring to have a perspective on a beautiful, green future. 100 years seems like an awfully long time, but the first people who will live to see it have already been born.’
From NL2120 to EU2120
In 2023, Van Hattum enjoyed the opportunity to take NL2120 to the European scope. In Brussels, he presented the sixth edition of the Mansholt lecture about a European issue in the field of food, agriculture and sustainable livelihoods. Three months prior to the lecture, he invited 50 students to a design studio. ‘An experiment,’ says the initiator, ‘to see if we could draft a rough sketch of Europe in 100 years. A map that shows a green vision of the future.’ With 20 experts in fields like landscape design, climate and biodiversity, the students began redesigning the European landmass. Three days later, the contours of EU2120 had been born, a vision and a map with nature as a guiding principle.
'You can also use science for a hopeful vision of the future'
In over 100 years, houses in Europe will generate their own energy, with features such as solar panels integrated into the windows. Photo: Shutterstock
Even after the Mansholt lecture, the ever-positive Van Hattum continues to tell the story of EU2120. His knowledge of water and climate and a healthy dose of experience as a consultant and policy maker have made him an advocate for a different future. ‘Based on scientific research, you may well choose to sound the climate alarm. This happens a lot nowadays, and for good reason. However, this makes for a very depressing trend. I want to show that you can also use science for a hopeful vision of the future. We can significantly curtail the consequences of climate change and biodiversity loss by giving nature and natural processes all the space they need.’
The city of the European in 2120
What does the vision of EU2120 mean for the daily life of a European? Quite a lot, according to Van Hattum’s story. In 100 years, a European will wake up in an apartment in the middle of the city. Van Hattum: ‘Just like today, most people live in cities, which, especially on higher ground, will have grown a lot. Those future cities will feature a different layout than the ones we are used to today. We’ll see far more high-rise buildings of four or five floors, made of wood. Houses will feature better insulation and ventilation, so they’ll offer pleasant living conditions even in extreme weather. The buildings generate their own energy, through solar panels integrated into the windows, for instance. This makes them fully self-sufficient when it comes to energy, and they also collect rainwater for indoor use.’
Climate programme lead Tim van Hattum paints a picture of life in Europe in 100 years. What if we viewed the world and our future from a positive point of view? How will Europe look in 2120 if we gave nature and natural processes the room they need to flourish?
In 2120, our fridges will be filled with products derived from a food system that is far more aligned with the natural system. ‘First of all, this means our soil is healthy and we make use of circular agriculture’, Van Hattum explains. ‘In a system like this, we primarily produce plant-based food for people, with far less of a focus on animal feed. The livestock sector will be smaller, and the animals will be fed primarily with food derived from the residual flows of the agricultural sector and restaurants. That way, we’ll need less farmland to provide 500 million Europeans with food.’ In addition to food, farmers will also produce biobased materials for the insulation of houses, for example.
Nature and public transport in 2120
Outdoors, the European 100 years from now will see a far greener city than their ancestors did a century before. Van Hattum: ‘Walls and roofs in this city of the future are covered in vegetation, and the areas between the buildings are likewise a lot greener. Extra trees help prevent heat stress. The air is clean, since fossil energy is a thing of the past and the car density of the city is significantly lower.’ The European lives in a 15-minute city, also known as a “walkable city”. Most amenities can be reached on foot or by bike within 15 minutes. There will still be cars, but those will mostly be shared cars powered by electricity or hydrogen. On top of that, public transport will be far better organised.’
'In 2120, one-third of Europe’s surface is made up of nature'
If this EU citizen leaves the city, they end up in ‘green transition zones’ that connect the city and the countryside. ‘These zones serve as recreational areas and offer water storage, which is important to prevent damage due to droughts and excess water. In the countryside, farmers are not only food producers, but also act as landscape managers. They receive honest compensation for this service.’ For trips further afield, the future EU citizen gets on a high-speed train to a different city or area in Europe. Van Hattum: ‘In China, they are miles ahead with this kind of long-distance public transport. The first trains that reach 600 kilometres per hour will enter the tracks there, soon. We can achieve this here, too, but that will take significant investments.’ Different landscapes zip by outside the train windows. What stands out is the extra space for water in river deltas, vast forests in middle and eastern Europe and agriculture in the most suitable areas. Van Hattum: ‘Southern European areas will produce less food due to climate change.’ The forests are more diverse, making them more resilient against drought and other extreme weather conditions. ‘Sustainable management will keep these forests standing, meaning there’s plenty of wood available for residential construction. About a third of Europe will be covered in nature in 2120.’
Preventing economic damage
Striving to achieve the green future of EU2120 is one of the ways to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity (Montreal Agreement), which states that at least 30 percent of land and water should be designated as protected natural reserves by 2030. It will also allow us to comply with the Paris Agreement, which states that global warming should be limited to 1.5 degrees. Europe has exceeded this limit by now. ‘In Europe, we are not at all prepared for the risks this poses. Even in the mildest climate scenario, we will face enormous consequences to our food production, nature, flooding risk in cities and residential needs’, Van Hattum laments. ‘There are estimates of the economic damage in 2050 if we persist in our current course. This damage will entail up to 38 trillion dollars annually, compared to a world economy of 100 trillion dollars.’
The current map of Europe (left) and the vision for a climate and nature based Europe in 2120 (right). Image: WUR.
'Even in the mildest climate scenario, the consequences are enormous'
Left: 72% of young people consider current climate change problematic. Photo: Diana Vucane – Shutterstock.
Right: In walkable cities, amenities can be reached within 15 minutes. Photo: Shutterstock.
He maintains an optimistic attitude, though. ‘In the best-case scenario, we can limit the consequences of climate change as much as possible. We can achieve this if we bring about the large-scale protection and recovery of Europe’s nature. EU2120 may only be a draft, but it is entirely based on scientific research. This future may become a reality.’ For this very reason, Van Hattum and his colleagues continue to spread the message of EU2120, both within the scientific world and beyond. In Europe, this already led to a call for research into the European water system, inspired by NL2120. Governments in Africa, Australia and Canada have similarly expressed their interest.
Worldwide
On top of this, in the past academic year, student teams joined the Nature-Based Future Challenge, organised by WUR. 700 participants from 147 universities all over the world developed a design for a delta in Bangladesh. In coming years, further editions of this challenge will follow, each focusing on a different delta for which students can draft a green future. ‘This is the ideal way to get young people on board with this mindset.’ Van Hattum hopes thinking 100 years ahead will become a continual process. ‘Technology changes every day, but nature is a lot slower. As such, we can look farther ahead with such nature-based solutions. The forests of the future should be planted now.’
Share this article